Timor election a key test of stability

Damien Kingsbury

April 18, 2012 - 7:36AM

A Timorese election official holds a ballot showing a vote for presidential candidate Taur Matau Ruak during the vote counting at a polling station in Dili, East Timor, on Monday. Photo: AP/Kandhi Barnez

When East Timor's outgoing president, Jose Ramos-Horta, won office in 2007 by a crushing 69 per cent, many outsiders attributed the victory to his high profile as a campaigner for the country during the 24 years of Indonesian occupation.

There is no doubt that Dr Ramos-Horta was well known and well liked within East Timor, as well as outside, but his first round vote was a more modest 21 per cent.

So, too, when Taur Matan Ruak stood for the presidency last month, he achieved a respectable but modest 26 per cent. On Monday, his voted jumped to just over 61 per cent. It was backing and organisation by Mr Gusmao that elevated Dr Ramos-Horta to his unassailable final position. It was Mr Gusmao's backing that also secured Mr Ruak's victory over Fretilin candidate Francisco "Lu-Olo" Guterres.

Democratic politics is not – and should not be – about one particular individual. But there is little doubt that the former resistance leader, president and now prime minister, Xanana Gusmao, has a charismatic status, coupled with a wily political instinct, that casts him as the towering force in East Timor's politics.

Many, including other political actors, had believed that the result of presidential vote would be much closer than it transpired. This meant that the parliamentary elections of July 7 were expected to be a more open race, with no single party expected to achieve a majority in its own right, and likely coalition options for government less clear.

With no single party likely to achieve a majority in the parliamentary elections, the question became who would be best placed to form a coalition. Fretilin has done well to rebuild its vote from its 2007 defeat. Similarly, the current "parliamentary alliance" government, led by Mr Gusmao, has been notable for, among other things, tensions between coalition members.

With its own candidate out of the presidential race, the influential Democratic Party (PD) remained neutral in Monday's vote. Similarly, outgoing President Ramos-Horta, who supports PD in the parliamentary elections, also remained neutral.

But, on the spread of presidential voter returns, it appears that most voters who had supported PD or Dr Ramos-Horta rejected Mr Guterres and accepted the candidate supported by Mr Gusmao's party, CNRT. The message this will send to the Democratic Party's leaders is that, should they decide to join Fretilin in a coalition government, their support base could desert them.

Politics is always a tough game and nowhere more so than in a society devastated by a massively damaging war, on top of all of the problems of trying to develop this still dirt-poor country. Political deals are therefore often done despite personal differences and this may again be the case following the parliamentary elections.

It is this sometime fraught environment that has also led to outbursts of violence, as opposite camps compete for scarce resources. The 2007 elections were held very much in the shadow of the 2006 violence that brought East Timor to the brink of civil war. Despite a strong international security presence, those elections were marred by considerable violence and much destruction.

By contrast, the 2012 elections have been remarkably calm. There have been a few relatively minor disturbances compared to 2007. But as the shape of the political landscape becomes increasingly clear following Monday's ballot, tensions may again rise.

In particular, Fretilin appears adept at turning out a consistently strong single party vote, if to date less able to secure majority support from non-Fretilin parties. Should it receive the single largest vote, as it did in 2007, Fretilin will probably claim, as it has done since 2007, that under Section 106 of the East Timorese constitution, the president is obliged to select the new prime minister from the party with the most votes in parliament.

Had Mr Guterres won the presidency, this would have been the likely outcome. However, Mr Ruak may adopt his predecessor's interpretation of the constitution, which says the prime minister can also be selected on the basis of commanding an alliance constituting a majority on the floor of the parliament. This is where the real tensions will be, as they were in 2007.

The UN is scheduled to draw down its presence by the end of the year and the Australian-led Stabilisation Force is scheduled to withdraw. The largely peaceful political environment to date suggests it is now time for the international community to let East Timor stand on its own two feet, and that is the preferred option within East Timor.

How the country goes into the parliamentary elections and, more importantly, how it comes out of them, will be the true test of whether East Timor has genuinely consolidated its democratic process. It will also be the test of whether East Timor can remain a stable, developing state.

Professor Damien Kingsbury is co-ordinator of the Timor-Leste Friendship Network/Deakin University Observer Mission to East Timor's 2012 elections.

OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR

Elections to Be Proud Of

By JOSÉ RAMOS-HORTA

Source: The New York Times Published: April 16, 2012

Four weeks ago, the citizens of Timor-Leste, known in many parts of the world as East Timor, went to the polls to elect a president. We were 12 men and women competing for the largely ceremonial but potentially influential office. On Monday, the voters returned to choose between the two top vote-getters.

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After the first round, political commentators did a simplistic analysis of the elections and how I “lost.” They missed the point.

A little over a decade ago, our small island was still occupied by the Indonesian military. Hundreds of thousands of our citizens perished under the occupation, either by execution, lack of the most basic medical care or starvation by forced relocations. With a small rag-tag group of dedicated independence fighters, we faced a massive army equipped and trained by the United States. We were a forgotten people.

When we achieved independence in 1999 through a U.N.-sponsored referendum, our island was devastated by militia backed by the Indonesian military. Eighty-five percent of our buildings were burned to the ground, and more than 300,000 people were forcibly removed to Indonesia.

In 2006 and 2007, Timor-Leste again exploded into violence, this time in civil conflict. It was the type of upheaval that is not unusual, historically, for a new democracy, but one that caused many to fear that the country was racing toward the edge of a cliff.

I am proud and honored to have served Timor-Leste, first in exile during the occupation and then as foreign minister, prime minister and president of the world’s youngest democracy. I am proud that during my presidency we achieved, for the first time in more than 35 years, a stable peace, which has allowed for new levels of development.

But having served as prime minister and president, I hesitated to run again for the presidency this year. At the signed request of more than 100,000 Timorese citizens, I did enter the race. I stated, however, that I would not campaign, as I had too much respect for at least two of the 11 other candidates.

In the few occasions when I did make public statements I reassured the voters about the other two leading candidates, who are indeed national heroes. One, Taur Matan Ruak, was a commander of Timor-Leste’s resistance forces during the 24-year occupation and after independence commanded our defense forces. The other, Francisco Guterres, popularly known as Lú-Olo, was also a leader of the resistance and has served as president of Parliament and president of the largest and oldest political party.

I cannot compare myself with them. While we fought the same battle to free our country from occupation during a dark 24 years, we fought in different trenches. I was in the diplomatic trench, one more visible internationally. But this is not to be equated with the daily challenges and dangers of the armed resistance or political underground network, whose losses were in thousands of lives. They have earned the right to lead as much as I.

During the last weeks of the first round of the campaign, I watched a vibrant democracy at work. The capital city, Dili, plastered with posters of smiling candidates, was loud with parades and rallies.

Naturally there were tensions, and fears spread among people traumatized by past violence. But the violence did not happen.

Last week I invited the two candidates for a heart-to-heart talk and pleaded with them to tone down their language, soften their campaign rhetoric, show tolerance and moderation. They agreed. They even appeared together before the media. Tensions were lowered. The political atmosphere has been much calmer since.

Which of our two candidates will win on Monday is the lesser question. The real question is whether Timor-Leste will be able to emerge fully from a past filled with violence and oppression, and whether it will be able to enjoy a peaceful transition of power. In other words, have we learned to take our battles to the polls instead of the streets?

So far the answer is yes. We are halfway through — after the runoff presidential vote, we have parliamentary elections in July. But it appears that our democracy is emerging from the process stronger — still imperfect, but on its feet and functioning.

Timor-Leste is a different country today than it was 10 years ago or even five years ago. Its double-digit growth for four straight years has made it one of the strongest economies in Asia. Unemployment has plummeted, and we are on track for 100-percent adult literacy by 2015. By the end of 2012 the entire country will have 24-hour electrical power for the first time, and in few years we should have 21st century connectivity.

There are still many challenges ahead. Timor-Leste has not yet conquered problems of corruption and waste. The number of people living in extreme poverty is down, but not far enough.

But back in 1999, Dili was devastated. Today it is rebuilt and buzzing with a new generation of young people on cars and motorbikes, all going to work.

I view the fact that our elections are competitive with a sense of contentment. They are a sign that the country is maturing. New candidates are enjoying a well-earned moment in the sun, and a younger generation is coming up behind them. Before long, new, young leaders will emerge, eager and ready to take the reins of the country from the hands of this year’s victors. This is the surest sign that our country has closed a very difficult chapter in its history, and that a new chapter has begun.

The violence of the past has been replaced by motorcycle parades and political rallies. None of us who fought for the freedom to hold these elections, who saw so many of our brothers and sisters give their lives for this day, can feel a loss at watching it occur.

It is my hope that we have sent a message to others emerging from conflict that it can be done.

José Ramos-Horta, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, is the president of East Timor.

UN congratulates Timor-Leste for peaceful and orderly run-off poll

source: UN NEWS CENTRE

Voter casts her ballot in the second round of the Presidential Elections. UN Photo/B. Soares

16 April 2012 –

Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and his top envoy in Timor-Leste have congratulated the people of the country on the successful holding today of the second round of the presidential election.“The peaceful and orderly manner in which the people of Timor-Leste exercised their right to vote, reflects once again their commitment to stability, democracy and national unity,” Mr. Ban’s spokesperson said in a statement.
“The Secretary-General reiterates the continued commitment of the United Nations to supporting the forthcoming parliamentary election in July,” it added.
Francisco Guterres faced off against Jose Maria de Vasconcelos in today’s poll, which followed the first round held on 17 March.
Mr. Ban’s Special Representative in Timor-Leste, Ameerah Haq, reported that the second round went off “very smoothly,” having witnessed some of the balloting first-hand.
“I visited five polling stations and I was very impressed to see Timorese men, women, citizens, casting their vote, continuing with their commitment to the democratic principles that have enshrined this nation,” she stated.
“I want to congratulate the electoral management bodies for their great work in conducting the elections today.”
Ms. Haq, who is head of the UN Integrated Mission in Timor-Leste (UNMIT), added that much of the credit also goes to the national police force, known as the PNTL, for enabling this round of voting to take place in an environment of calm.
“This shows that the Timorese police have come a long way in being in the front seat of this electoral process.”
Electoral assistance, institutional development and capacity-building of the PNTL are the main tasks the UN peacekeeping mission is responsible for until its expected departure on 31 December this year from the small Asian nation that the world body shepherded to independence in 2002.

News Tracker: past stories on this issue

FROM THE FIELD: Calm in Dili as Timor-Leste votes

Ex-army chief set to lead East Timor

Michael Bachelard, Dili

April 17, 2012

Ex-army chief set to lead East Timor

Michael Bachelard, Dili

source: The Age

April 17, 2012

In the lead: Jose Maria de Vasconcelos. Photo: Reuters

A MILITARY man recommended by the United Nations for criminal prosecution six years ago seems almost certain to become the new president of East Timor.

Former commander of the armed forces Jose Maria de Vasconcelos, universally known as Taur Matan Ruak (or ''Two Sharp Eyes''), was well ahead in counting late last night and was expecting to be declared the winner today in the second round of the country's presidential election.

With over 60 per cent of the vote counted, Mr Ruak was up by 61 per cent to Mr Guterres's 39 per cent.

It appeared he had defeated his rival, Francisco ''Lu Olo'' Guterres from the former revolutionary Fretilin party by an unexpectedly large margin.

However, on early figures, the turnout for the poll was disappointingly low among the 626,503 enrolled voters turning up yesterday, perhaps put off by the need to travel back to their home villages to vote.

The final result will not be known until today, but a spokesman for Taur Matan Ruak, Jose Belo, last night attributed the apparent win to the candidate's energy in visiting and campaigning in 152 villages in the past six months.

The victory was sealed in the country's western districts, known to be hostile to Fretilin, but Mr Belo said Taur Matan Ruak had even claimed wins in villages inside Fretilin territory.

A spokesman for Mr Guterres acknowledged on an early count that it would be difficult for the Fretilin candidate to win.

Mr Belo said Taur Matan Ruak's priorities were to look after veterans of the conflict and widows, to help the large number of young people without work, partly through compulsory military service, and to spread the wealth from urban to rural areas.

Taur Matan Ruak was a popular candidate because of his military background in a country that values heroes of the past.

Ranked a Major-General, he was the last military commander of the resistance before East Timor became independent from Indonesia, and commander of the country's armed forces when they were formed in 2001, after independence.

He stepped down from that role in October last year. However, his campaign posters depicted him in military-style uniform.

East Timor's president has a role in appointing the prime minister.

He can also veto legislation that is against the national interest.

The election marks the 10th anniversary of East Timor becoming independent.

If significant conflict can be avoided, both the UN security forces and the Australian and New Zealand army contingents here are expected to go home later this year, allowing the new democracy to police itself.

Taur Matan Ruak won 26 per cent in the first round, but picked up a large portion of the support of outgoing president Jose Ramos-Horta, and Democratic party candidate Fernando ''Lasama'' de Araujo, both of whom were knocked out in the first round.

But Taur Matan Ruak's history is controversial. In 2006 East Timor degenerated into an armed struggle between various factions of the army and the police force.

Thirty-eight people died and 150,000 were displaced, prompting the country to invite in a UN team to provide security, and another to launch a special commission of inquiry.

That inquiry recommended Taur Matan Ruak be prosecuted under the criminal code for his role in distributing army weapons to 206 civilians in May 2006. The weapons were then used during the unrest.

''Those weapons were distributed by and/or with the knowledge and approval of'' people including Taur Matan Ruak, the UN report found.

''The commission recommends that these persons be prosecuted for illegal weapons transfer.''

Taur Matan Ruak was not prosecuted, and said at the time he had been acting on the orders of the defence minister.